USPH) Stock Technicals Hit Inflection Point

 

Decision Time: U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) Stock Technicals Hit Inflection Point

 

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc technical rating as of

2017-04-23

(USPH Price of Stock at Publication: $64.2)


Decision Time: U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) now sits in the perhaps the most difficult technical position — the stock has no urgency in its direction and that has left it at an inflection point. Watch the key moving average levels that we discuss below and further, watch the stochastics, technical oscillators and momentum readings for any kind of hint to direction.

The company has a three bull momentum rating which indicates an inflection point. It may seem obvious, but this is the time to put the stock on alert — a meaningful move in either direction now will likely swing momentum into a channel that could be decidedly up or down.

 
With the current stock price and the moving averages showing signs of indecision, any consecutive day stock move in either direction will likely push the stock into a bearish or bullish momentum channel that could persist for the short-term. This is a critical inflection point.

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USPH is down -6.6% over the last three months and up +4.6% over the last six months. The stock price is up +29.1% over the last year. The current stock price is $64.2.

The technical rating goes from a rating of one, the weakest upside technical, to a rating of five,
the highest upside technical. This is strictly focusing on price and technical — that means we focus on real-time stock price movement and then position it relative to the simple moving averages. To make the technical rating meaningful, the moving averages are also compared to each other.

If you’re looking for the simplest version of this, here it is — when the short-term moving averages are above the long-term moving averages that indicates relative strength in the technical. Then see the current price relative to the highest moving average and you will have a “back of the envelope” technical indicator in your back pocket for any stock at any time.

The blending and weighting of numbers above created the technical model built by Capital Market Laboratories (www.CMLviz.com).
Note the stock price at publication ($64.2), since the technical rating is based on intraday stock prices.
 

Technicals   |   Support: 63.15   |   Resistance: 65.35   

 

Golden Cross Alert: The 50 day MA is now above the 200 day moving average.

As we noted above — the back of the envelope rule here is that when shorter-term moving averages move above the longer-term ones, momentum is building. We have that right now.

Swing Death Cross Alert: The short-term 10 day moving average is now below the 50 day moving average.

Recall that when we see the shortest-term moving average (10-day in this case) fall below any other moving average (50-day in this case), it indicates weakening momentum.

We can set aside oscillators and stochastics, we are simply in no man’s land: U.S. Physical Therapy Inc has a three bull technical rating which puts it at an inflection point because while it’s trading above its 10 day moving average, its trading below both the 50- and 200 day simple moving averages and the 10 day moving average is below the 50 day moving average (“swing death cross”). The fact that the stock is up 0.31% today and that the stockprice is above the 10-day moving average puts it an a critical inflection point.
We now turn to the actual numbers driving this rating:

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) rating statistics:

10-day moving average: $63.97

50-day moving average: $69.15

200-day moving average: $65.29

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U.S. Physical Therapy Inc Stock Volatility Hits A Deteriorated Level





Stock Alert – But Not What You Might Think


Before we cover the full analysis we make a quick alert here that U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) has seen its stock price move at a deteriorated level. We’ll go through the details below — but that’s the lede — the stock has been unusally quiet. If there was a post it note to summarize the stock movement in the last 30-days it would likely read “quiet time… too quiet?” The HV20 is 28.25% verus the HV20 of the S&P 500 at 6.43%.

Another bit to this alert of quiet time, which we cover in the article, is that while the historical volatility may be a deteriorated level, the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the HV20 is low, but rather if the implied volatility that is priced for the next 30-days accuratley reflects what we’re about to see in the stock for the next month.

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PREFACE


This is a proprietary realized volatility rating created by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of data interactions for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) . We examine
the little used gem of daily stock volatility over a 20-day and 30-day trading period, as well as comparisons to the last year and the actual stock returns over the last three- and six-months
and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.

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As a heads up, in the “Why This Matters” section at the end of this article on U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) , we’re going to take a step back and show really clearly
that there is actually a lot less “luck” in successful option trading than most people are aware of. This idea of an “option trading expert” is vastly over complicated
so those with the information advantage can continue to profit at the expense of the rest.

But before that, let’s turn back to USPH. Here are the exact steps that led us to this rating, and whether it’s a risk alert or a holding pattern.

USPH Recent Stock Volatility








Rating


Stock volatility using proprietary measures has hit a deteriorated level.



While stocks with USPH’s profile see a short-term quiet period, this is also one of those times
when a shake out volatility move could be on the horizon.
Let’s take a deep dive into some institutional level volatility measures for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) .

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc Stock Performance


USPH is down -6.9% over the last three months and up +2.5% over the last six months. The stock price is up +27.3% over the last year. The current stock price is $64.


USPH Step 1: Stock Returns



The one-year stock return does not impact the volatility rating since we are looking at a shorter time horizon. However, the rating does examine the 3-month returns and the
absolute difference between the 3-month and 6-month returns.

  The 3-month stock return of -6.9% is too small to impact the stock volatility rating for USPH.
  The small difference between the 3-month and 6-month stock returns does not impact the stock volatility rating for USPH.



USPH Step 2: Daily Stock Volatility Level


The HV30® takes the stock’s day to day historical volatility over the last 30-days and then annualizes it. The HV20 looks back over just 20-days — a shorter time period. Here is the breakdown for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) and how the day-by-day stock historical volatilities have impacted the rating:

  The HV20 of 21.7% is low enough that it has a downward impact on USPH’s volatility rating.

USPH Step 3: U.S. Physical Therapy Inc HV20 Compared to Indices


* The HV20 for USPH is substantially larger than that for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 which raises the volatility rating.

* The HV20 for USPH is substantially larger than that for the Health Care ETF (XLV) which raises the volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.



           USPH
           HV20    
   S&P 500
HV20
   NASDAQ 100
HV20   
   XLV
HV20   
           21.7%    6.43%    6.07%    5.57%





USPH Step 4: Daily Volatility Percentiles and Highs

We also examine the annual high of the HV30 in our rating but in this case the 52 week high in HV30 for USPH is 34.5%,
which is not enough to impact the stock volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.



           USPH
           HV20    
   USPH
HV30
   USPH
HV30 High   
           21.7%    28.3%    34.5%





Final Stock Volatility Percentile Level: USPH


The final evolution of the volatility rating for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc is a comparison of the HV30 value relative to its past, which is neatly summarized in the percentile — a scoring mechanism that goes from a low of 1 to a high of 100.

 
The HV30 percentile for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc is 68%, which means the stock has seen elevated volatile price movement relative to its own past and
that has a small impact on the stock volatility rating.



U.S. Physical Therapy Inc Realized Volatility Percentiles



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U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) Stock Rating Upgraded by Zacks Investment Research


Zacks Investment Research upgraded shares of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (NYSE:USPH) from a sell rating to a hold rating in a research report sent to investors on Tuesday morning.

According to Zacks, “U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. operates outpatient physical and occupational therapy clinics which provide post-operative care and treatment for a variety of orthopedic-related disorders and sports-related injuries. “

Other research analysts have also recently issued research reports about the company. Jefferies Group LLC set a $63.00 price target on U.S. Physical Therapy and gave the stock a hold rating in a research report on Saturday, March 18th. Barrington Research cut U.S. Physical Therapy from an outperform rating to a market perform rating in a research report on Friday, March 17th.

U.S. Physical Therapy (NYSE:USPH) opened at 64.00 on Tuesday. U.S. Physical Therapy has a 52 week low of $48.71 and a 52 week high of $78.00. The stock has a market cap of $801.34 million, a P/E ratio of 33.16 and a beta of 0.91. The stock has a 50 day moving average of $67.05 and a 200-day moving average of $66.87.

TRADEMARK VIOLATION WARNING: This report was originally posted by The Cerbat Gem and is the sole property of of The Cerbat Gem. If you are reading this report on another domain, it was illegally stolen and republished in violation of U.S. and international trademark & copyright legislation. The original version of this report can be accessed at https://www.thecerbatgem.com/2017/04/21/u-s-physical-therapy-inc-usph-lifted-to-hold-at-zacks-investment-research-updated.html.

The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, May 5th. Shareholders of record on Monday, April 17th will be given a $0.20 dividend. This represents a $0.80 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 1.25%. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, April 12th. This is a boost from U.S. Physical Therapy’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.17. U.S. Physical Therapy’s payout ratio is currently 35.05%.

Hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. BlackRock Fund Advisors boosted its stake in U.S. Physical Therapy by 6.3% in the third quarter. BlackRock Fund Advisors now owns 927,868 shares of the company’s stock valued at $58,177,000 after buying an additional 54,747 shares during the period. Summit Global Investments purchased a new stake in U.S. Physical Therapy during the fourth quarter valued at $484,000. Schroder Investment Management Group boosted its stake in U.S. Physical Therapy by 209.2% in the third quarter. Schroder Investment Management Group now owns 319,373 shares of the company’s stock valued at $20,024,000 after buying an additional 216,073 shares during the period. Citadel Advisors LLC purchased a new stake in U.S. Physical Therapy during the third quarter valued at $530,000. Finally, Allianz Asset Management AG purchased a new stake in U.S. Physical Therapy during the fourth quarter valued at $381,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 96.70% of the company’s stock.

U.S. Physical Therapy Company Profile

U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc, through its subsidiaries, operates outpatient physical therapy clinics that provide pre-and post-operative care, and treatment for orthopedic-related disorders, sports-related injuries, preventative care, rehabilitation of injured workers and neurological-related injuries.

5 Day Chart for NYSE:USPH

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