USPH) Stock Technicals Hit Inflection Point

 

Decision Time: U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) Stock Technicals Hit Inflection Point

 

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc technical rating as of

2017-04-23

(USPH Price of Stock at Publication: $64.2)


Decision Time: U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) now sits in the perhaps the most difficult technical position — the stock has no urgency in its direction and that has left it at an inflection point. Watch the key moving average levels that we discuss below and further, watch the stochastics, technical oscillators and momentum readings for any kind of hint to direction.

The company has a three bull momentum rating which indicates an inflection point. It may seem obvious, but this is the time to put the stock on alert — a meaningful move in either direction now will likely swing momentum into a channel that could be decidedly up or down.

 
With the current stock price and the moving averages showing signs of indecision, any consecutive day stock move in either direction will likely push the stock into a bearish or bullish momentum channel that could persist for the short-term. This is a critical inflection point.

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USPH is down -6.6% over the last three months and up +4.6% over the last six months. The stock price is up +29.1% over the last year. The current stock price is $64.2.

The technical rating goes from a rating of one, the weakest upside technical, to a rating of five,
the highest upside technical. This is strictly focusing on price and technical — that means we focus on real-time stock price movement and then position it relative to the simple moving averages. To make the technical rating meaningful, the moving averages are also compared to each other.

If you’re looking for the simplest version of this, here it is — when the short-term moving averages are above the long-term moving averages that indicates relative strength in the technical. Then see the current price relative to the highest moving average and you will have a “back of the envelope” technical indicator in your back pocket for any stock at any time.

The blending and weighting of numbers above created the technical model built by Capital Market Laboratories (www.CMLviz.com).
Note the stock price at publication ($64.2), since the technical rating is based on intraday stock prices.
 

Technicals   |   Support: 63.15   |   Resistance: 65.35   

 

Golden Cross Alert: The 50 day MA is now above the 200 day moving average.

As we noted above — the back of the envelope rule here is that when shorter-term moving averages move above the longer-term ones, momentum is building. We have that right now.

Swing Death Cross Alert: The short-term 10 day moving average is now below the 50 day moving average.

Recall that when we see the shortest-term moving average (10-day in this case) fall below any other moving average (50-day in this case), it indicates weakening momentum.

We can set aside oscillators and stochastics, we are simply in no man’s land: U.S. Physical Therapy Inc has a three bull technical rating which puts it at an inflection point because while it’s trading above its 10 day moving average, its trading below both the 50- and 200 day simple moving averages and the 10 day moving average is below the 50 day moving average (“swing death cross”). The fact that the stock is up 0.31% today and that the stockprice is above the 10-day moving average puts it an a critical inflection point.
We now turn to the actual numbers driving this rating:

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) rating statistics:

10-day moving average: $63.97

50-day moving average: $69.15

200-day moving average: $65.29

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U.S. Physical Therapy Inc Realized Volatility Hits An Inflection Point


U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) Realized Volatility Hits An Inflection Point



Stock Alert and Holding Pattern


Before we cover the full analysis we make a quick alert here that U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) has seen its stock price move at an inflection point level. We’ll go through the details below — but that’s the lede — the stock has been behaving, roughly speaking, ‘normally.’ If there was a post it note to summarize the stock movement in the last 30-days it would likely read “holding pattern.” The HV20 is 29.75% verus the HV20 of the S&P 500 at 7.04%.

But don’t confuse a holding pattern with low risk — this is quite possibly an inflection point.

Another bit to this holding pattern, which we cover in the article, is that while the historical volatility may be an inflection point level, the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the HV20 is high or low, but rather if the implied volatility that is priced for the next 30-days accuratley reflects what we’re about to see in the stock for the next month.

To jump forward and examine if owning or shorting options has been a positive trade in U.S. Physical Therapy Inc, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.


PREFACE


This is a proprietary realized volatility rating created by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of data interactions for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) . We examine
the little used gem of daily stock volatility over a 20-day and 30-day trading period, as well as comparisons to the last year and the actual stock returns over the last three- and six-months
and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.

Option trading isn’t about luck — this three minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth




As a heads up, in the “Why This Matters” section at the end of this article on U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) , we’re going to take a step back and show really clearly
that there is actually a lot less “luck” in successful option trading than most people are aware of. This idea of an “option trading expert” is vastly over complicated
so those with the information advantage can continue to profit at the expense of the rest.

But before that, let’s turn back to USPH. Here are the exact steps that led us to this rating, and whether it’s a risk alert or a holding pattern.

USPH Recent Realized Volatility








Rating


Realized volatility using proprietary measures has hit an inflection point level.




Let’s take a deep dive into some institutional level volatility measures for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) .

U.S. Physical Therapy Inc Stock Performance


USPH is down -12.9% over the last three months and down -3.6% over the last six months. The stock price is up +28.4% over the last year. The current stock price is $61.9.


USPH Step 1: Stock Returns



The one-year stock return does not impact the volatility rating since we are looking at a shorter time horizon. However, the rating does examine the 3-month returns and the
absolute difference between the 3-month and 6-month returns.

  The 3-month stock return of -12.9% has a small impact on the realized volatility rating for USPH.
  The small difference between the 3-month and 6-month stock returns does not impact the realized volatility rating for USPH.



USPH Step 2: Daily Realized Volatility Level


The HV30® takes the stock’s day to day historical volatility over the last 30-days and then annualizes it. The HV20 looks back over just 20-days — a shorter time period. Here is the breakdown for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) and how the day-by-day realized historical volatilities have impacted the rating:

  The HV20 of 29.6% is low enough that it has a downward impact on USPH’s volatility rating.

USPH Step 3: U.S. Physical Therapy Inc HV20 Compared to Indices


* The HV20 for USPH is substantially larger than that for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 which raises the volatility rating.

* The HV20 for USPH is substantially larger than that for the Health Care ETF (XLV) which raises the volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.



           USPH
           HV20    
   S&P 500
HV20
   NASDAQ 100
HV20   
   XLV
HV20   
           29.6%    7.04%    7.58%    7.29%





USPH Step 4: Daily Volatility Percentiles and Highs

We also examine the annual high of the HV30 in our rating but in this case the 52 week high in HV30 for USPH is 37.6%,
which is not enough to impact the realized volatility rating.

Here is summary data in tabular and chart format.



           USPH
           HV20    
   USPH
HV30
   USPH
HV30 High   
           29.6%    29.8%    37.6%





Final Realized Volatility Percentile Level: USPH


The final evolution of the volatility rating for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc is a comparison of the HV30 value relative to its past, which is neatly summarized in the percentile — a scoring mechanism that goes from a low of 1 to a high of 100.

 
The HV30 percentile for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc is 65%, which means the stock has seen elevated volatile price movement relative to its own past and
that has a small impact on the realized volatility rating.



U.S. Physical Therapy Inc Realized Volatility Percentiles



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HPU to Host Physical Therapist for Health Sciences Distinguished Lecture Series – High Point University | | High Point University


Dr. Linda Woodhouse

HIGH POINT, N.C., March 13, 2017 – High Point University’s Department of Physical Therapy and Congdon School of Health Sciences will host Linda Woodhouse, PT, Ph.D., for its Distinguished Lecture Series. She will speak on the topic of innovation for an ailing health care system. The event will be held at 5:30 p.m. on March 28 in Phillips Hall Auditorium, Room 120. It is free and open to the public; no tickets required.

Woodhouse has nearly 30 years of experience in clinical trials and musculoskeletal research, 115 presented abstracts and has received more than $23 million in peer-reviewed grants. She is an associate professor of physical therapy at the University of Alberta, Canada, where she is the inaugural Endowed Chair in Rehabilitation Medicine. Additionally, she served as the Provincial Scientific Director for Alberta Health Services’ Bone and Joint Health Strategic Clinical Network. She is a research affiliate at McCaig Institute for Bone and Joint Health in Calgary and president of the Canadian Physiotherapy Association.

“We are so proud to have Linda Woodhouse, a leader and revolutionary thinker, as our Distinguished Speaker,” says Dr. Eric Hegedus, department chair of physical therapy. “Based on her outstanding work and reputation, we look forward to hosting her for all of our students and faculty in the Congdon School of Health Sciences and the High Point community.”

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Overuse of Physical Therapy a Growing Pain Point for Workers’ Comp Costs


Ineffective physical and occupational therapies are impacting employers more than they’re aware of.

I recently attended an event for the Chicago chapter of the Disability Management Employer Coalition. The topic was tackling physical therapy/occupational therapy over-utilization, a national problem for employers, claims adjusters and case managers who handle workers’ compensation cases.

Most of the talk was geared toward case managers, but the employer takeaway I got was that self-insured companies end up paying for therapy that’s not necessarily helping injured employees return to work faster. Sometimes when PT isn’t getting the job done, a doctor, for whatever reason, will recommend more PT rather than an alternative treatment. Overutilization is a huge cost driver for companies. There should be a “next step” in case therapy is not working and the patient is not progressing, argued the speaker, workers’ comp expert Cindy G. Rega.

The Chicago chapter members had a lot of questions about their own personal experiences trying to deal with situations like this, when an injured worker is attending therapy but not getting desired results. These experiences were mostly from that case manager perspective. Still, the gist was: the longer these workers are injured and doing PT/OT that is not getting the job done, the longer the employer is out of an employee.

Hearing these experiences made me realize how prevalent this is and how frustrating working through the process can be.

To help me understand more deeply what employers should know about PT/OT over-utilization, LaVina Branch, president of the DMEC Chicago Chapter, gave me the rundown for employers. Branch is also the manager of workers’ comp and leave management at McMaster-Carr Supply Co. in Elmhurst, Illinois.

The employer-employee relationship puts the employer in the position to guide and empower employees, said Branch. Employers hear the complaints employees have when an injury isn’t getting better. They can ask the injured person questions like, have you talked to your doctor about the type of therapy you’re receiving? Do you think that’s working? Should they try something different? Have you talked to your therapist about this?

“You have to help your employee understand they need to be an advocate for their care,” she said. “Just because it’s a work injury doesn’t mean you’re not an advocate for your care. Just like you would advocate if it were a personal illness or injury, you have to do the same if it’s work related. It’s still your body.”

physical therapy workers' comp

Ineffective physical or occupational therapy can be a drain on workers’ comp costs.

Another major employer takeaway was to be aware that over-utilization happens. And also be aware that other parties involved, like claims adjusters, might not be looking at this closely. That’s why the employers should take it on to empower employees to become a larger player in their own care.

“If they’re going to therapy that is not improving them, then something else might be wrong,” Branch said. “There might be a need to peel back the onion and dig deeper.”

This could go on for months, she added. Instead of letting that happen and having to be reactive, be proactive. Set up a calendar, and if the employee doesn’t get better by a certain time, take another step, like talking to the doctor, to find out if treatment plan is working.

Andie Burjek is a Workforce associate editorComment below, or email at aburjek@humancapitalmedia.com. Follow Workforce on Twitter at @workforcenews.



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Class of 2017 Profile: Allie Zambito Pursues Doctor of Physical Therapy – High Point University | | High Point University


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Name: Allie Zambito

Hometown: Bayville, New Jersey

Major: Zambito will graduate with a B.S. in Exercise Science on May 6.

Post-graduation plans: Zambito will pursue a master’s degree in anatomy and clinical health science, while working toward her Doctor of Physical Therapy degree, at the University of Delaware in Newark, Delaware. UD’s physical therapy program is currently ranked No. 1 in the nation by U.S. News and World Report.

How HPU helped you get there: “It is hard to narrow down all of the ways in which HPU has fostered opportunities for me to become a better student, friend, leader and aspiring health care professional. I entered freshman year with an open mind and willingness to get involved in campus organizations that related to my interests, while simultaneously stepping outside of my comfort zone. I immediately joined Club Field Hockey and the Exercise Science Club, and made several friends who motivated me to give Greek Life a try. Becoming a member of Zeta Tau Alpha was by far one of the greatest experiences of my life. Through ZTA, I fought for breast cancer education and awareness, met incredible girls I was fortunate enough to call sisters, and further developed my leadership skills. Holding Service Chair and Academic Achievement Chair positions on programming and executive councils, respectively, polished my communication and event planning skills as well.

Instilling in me the confidence to take on leadership roles outside of ZTA, I served as President of the Exercise Science Club for 2 years and helped develop the club into a prominent organization on campus. Through community involvement with local after-school program PNAC (Physical Activity, Nutrition, Academics, and Character Development), we were able to spread our message of exercise and healthy living to High Point’s youth.

With the support of stellar faculty and staff within the Exercise Science Department, the club developed a partnership with HPU’s Employee Wellness Program to host two student, faculty and staff wellness 5Ks under my presidency. All proceeds from our race were donated to our community partner, PNAC. From planning minute details with security and campus enhancement, to marketing our event to local vendors, HPU has provided me with chances to improve interpersonal connections that have been vital in carrying me through the graduate school interview process.

HPU’s Human Biomechanics and Physiology Laboratory has also provided me with the resources, technology, and guidance to pursue undergraduate research. Through Dr. Smoliga’s mentorship, I have collected, analyzed, and presented data twice at the American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) Conferences, thus aiding in exposure to cutting edge research in world of exercise science.”

Most impactful mentor at HPU: “Immediately after the conclusion of the spring semester, exercise science students are able to complete an exercise physiology Maymester course that packs in a semester’s worth of coursework into three weeks, with the final week spent attending the ACSM Conference and World Congress on Exercise is Medicine. I decided to take this Maymester to get ahead in my major courses after freshman year, excited to experience an international research conference for the first time. Largely credited to Dr. Kimberly Reich’s teaching style, I absorbed an immense amount of knowledge through four hours of class daily, independent study, and weekly tests and projects. The structure of Dr. Reich’s class, her excitement about the content, and commitment to each student’s full grasp of the material made exercise physiology fun and engaging. Through her guidance, I was prepared to travel to Orlando with my classmates, and felt confident to attend lectures and colloquiums relevant to the physiological mechanisms we had learned.

While this is the only class I have had with Dr. Reich, she has made a lasting impact on my undergraduate career and remains one of the most influential people in my life. Such a positive, integrated experience at the 61ST ACSM Conference in Orlando motivated me to undergo two years of my own undergraduate research within HPU’s Human Biomechanics and Physiology Laboratory, presenting posters at subsequent ACSM Conferences in San Diego and Boston, respectively, for my work in cardiovascular endurance in elite runners. I thank Dr. Reich for exposing me to the world of exercise science outside of campus, as a quality educator has the ability to impact a student’s education beyond the context of a diploma.

Outside of the classroom, her influence on my collegiate career and personal ambitions was only just beginning. Early sophomore year at HPU, students are given permanent academic advisors for the duration of their undergraduate education. I was truly blessed to receive Dr. Reich as my advisor, who soon became one of the greatest teachers I have ever had, in more ways than one. I soon took over as president of the Exercise Science Club with great aspirations but little knowledge of campus procedures, or even how to bring my ideas to fruition. As advisor to the club in addition to my academic endeavors, I would spend countless hours in Dr. Reich’s office discussing club plans along with my personal semester, collegiate, and graduate school goals. Her wisdom helped shape the leader I am today, instilling in me the confidence to take on huge challenges with grace like that of planning and executing community outreach with PNAC and both Wellness 5Ks, all while maintaining a high level of academic excellence. Facilitating contacts in the community, utilizing her connections to publicize our events, and making a huge effort to be present at the majority of our meetings and activities, I owe immense gratitude to Dr. Reich for her guidance outside of the traditional scholarly environment. Even though she was my professor for only one abbreviated semester, I have been her student from the very beginning and will always look to her for advice in the face of uncertainty. She has shaped my work ethic, public speaking capabilities, field-based knowledge and determination that will stay with me for the rest of my life.”

Most impactful moment at HPU: “My most impactful moment at HPU was inviting PNAC to our second annual wellness 5K to race alongside students, faculty, and staff. Through donations from the event, and a ‘Best Student Project’ monetary award given to the Exercise Science Club for an original 3-week healthy living curriculum we designed for these children, we were able to donate $1,000 to this organization. The look in PNAC leader Ms. Jakki Davis’ eyes made all of our efforts worth it by offsetting some of cost for this remarkable nonprofit.”

Advice for underclassmen: “Never be afraid to step outside your comfort zone in the face of a new challenge. Throughout your undergraduate career you may be faced with opportunities that may seem daunting, or require a little more effort than you’re used to putting in. Take it on, work hard on every task, harness your leadership skills, and your efforts will not go unnoticed!”

 

Are you an HPU graduate with an exciting job or graduate school offer?
Share your news with us for a chance to be featured!

 

It may be early in the semester, but Commencement will be here before we know it. Many High Point University seniors are preparing to commence prestigious career paths around the world at Fortune 500 companies, international service programs, public school systems, top-tier law, medical and graduate school programs, and many other esteemed organizations thanks to their journey at HPU. View more extraordinary seniors from the Class of 2017 here.

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